SPC AC 071237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST SUN MAR 07 2010
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE SPLIT OFF THE PACIFIC NW CST...NRN
BAJA/SRN CA UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE TO THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS
PERIOD AS LOW NOW OVER IA FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES SE TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.
HI PLNS LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON. LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE E OF TROUGH...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AOA 1.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN TX BY 12Z MON.
...SW TX/SRN HI PLNS...
A LOW PROBABILITY RISK WILL EXIST THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT FOR STORMS
TO FORM ALONG N/S LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER FAR W TX AND SE NM...
WHERE SFC HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA
250 J/KG. UPR-LVL FORCING LIKELY WILL BE WEAK WELL AHEAD OF SWRN
UPR LOW...THUS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD AND TIED
TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS. BUT GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR...SUCH ACTIVITY COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY SFC
WINDS.
ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE SAME
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT ON
LEADING EDGE OF APPROACHING UPR SYSTEM ENCOUNTER W EDGE OF LOW LVL
MOIST AXIS. TEMPORAL BACKING OF MID AND UPR-LVL FLOW...AND
INCREASINGLY LINEAR DEEP WIND FIELD...SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO A N/S
QLCS. EMBEDDED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR WIND/HAIL DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.
...MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WITH IA UPR LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LESSEN AS SYSTEM CONTINUES SEWD. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING MAY SUPPORT A FEW WEAK AFTN STORMS OVER PARTS OF IL AND
ADJACENT STATES.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/07/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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