Mar 12, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 12 12:58:21 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100312 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100312 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100312 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100312 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 121255
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010
   
   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN FL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
   VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/ERN KY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL VORT
   MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT AROUND LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW
   FORECAST TO PERSIST GENERALLY OVER THE MID SOUTH.  LEADING IMPULSE
   IS SUSTAINING BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN
   APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   LIFTING NEWD AND THEN NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIKEWISE PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL KY FOR MUCH
   OF THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...DEEP WLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
   IN WAKE OF LEADING IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
   AID IN SHIFTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS EWD WITH TIME.  
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN KY INTO PART OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIABATIC HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING IMPULSE LIFTING INTO THIS AREA TODAY. 
   WHEREVER HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED...MARGINAL SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP
   AND SUSTAIN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING NNWWD THIS
   AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL UPON
   SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
   
   ...S FL...
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS SOUTH FL AS VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS AHEAD OF SLOWLY SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
   EXTENDING INVOF A FMY TO PBI GENERAL LINE AT 12Z.  MORNING SOUNDING
   FROM KMFL INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF SHEAR...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
   WEAK LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FOCUSED
   CONVERGENCE MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL THREAT.  REGARDLESS...APPEARS
   CONDITIONAL RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND REMAINS
   WARRANTED SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY AND FL PANHANDLE...
   ONGOING STORMS MAY SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL RISK THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING AS THEY SHIFT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH
   ACTIVITY WEAKENING IN TIME. ADDITIONAL AREA OF ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL ALREADY INCREASING OVER
   THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA THROUGH THE MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST
   AND SPREAD GENERALLY NEWD.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE AS AXIS OF DEEP
   ASCENT NOW MOVING ACROSS MS SPREADS EWD...12Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT MAY REMAIN MARGINAL AND
   NOT WARRANT SUSTAINING CATEGORICAL SLGT ATTM.  ADDITIONAL...MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED STORMS INVOF MID
   LEVEL COLD POCKET SHIFTING INTO ERN MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..EVANS/GARNER.. 03/12/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z