SPC AC 021250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR E
TX...ERN OK...MO...AR..AND WRN MS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
NEWD FROM ERN SD TO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND REMNANT DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...AS THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EWD FROM ERN NM/W TX
THIS MORNING TO AR BY TONIGHT.
...N TX INTO CENTRAL/NE OK THIS MORNING...
AN ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS /ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND/ WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE REMNANT DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTED
BY A BELT OF ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS MOVING EWD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE
BACKING/ STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT NOTED IN REGIONAL PROFILER PLOTS
ACROSS OK/TX. MEANWHILE...AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
60-65 F ACROSS TX/OK BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF A STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J PER KG/ TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE LLJ REMAINS
QUITE STRONG ACROSS N TX AND CENTRAL/ERN OK.
...E TX/ERN OK/WRN AR/MO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE REMAINS OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM E TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD...AND AS THE W TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH
REACHES CENTRAL TX AND DOWNSTREAM ASCENT STRENGTHENS. WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /MLCAPE VALUES AOB 1000
J PER KG/...BUT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED BOWING/ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS CONVECTION WILL
THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS LA/AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
NWD/NEWD ACROSS MO/IL...THOUGH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT FARTHER N AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
...LA/WRN MS OVERNIGHT...
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EWD/ENEWD OVER NRN LA/AR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ROOTED AT OR NEAR
THE GROUND. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS CONVECTION REACHES THE MS
RIVER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/02/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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