Apr 6, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 6 16:32:20 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100406 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100406 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100406 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100406 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 061629
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT TUE APR 06 2010
   
   VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY...
   
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS CO/NM WILL TRACK
   EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT. 
   AS IT DOES SO...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM IA INTO OK.
   
   ...IA/MO/KS...
   16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW NEAR OMA WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
   EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IA...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
   INTO CENTRAL KS.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF DSM BY
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE DOMINANT. 
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL DUE
   TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE CAPE.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD INTO EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL DURING THE EVENING WITH A
   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.  DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
   PROXIMITY OF SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...PARTS OF CENTRAL IA AND
   NORTHERN MO HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED WITH 10% PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES.
   
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO.  THESE STORMS WILL
   ALSO LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUTLOOK
   REGION WITH A THREAT OF RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL.  IF
   DISCRETE EVOLUTION CAN BE SUSTAINED...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ...OK...
   ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE RETARDED
   UNTIL NEAR/AFTER DARK ACROSS OK DUE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. 
   HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ONCE STORMS FORM.  STRENGTH OF
   CAP SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG FRONT/DRYLINE WITH A QLCS
   EVOLUTION LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EASTERN OK.
   
   ...PA/NY...
   A FAST-MOVING MCS OVER LOWER MI HAS BECOME VERY ORGANIZED AT THE
   MESOSCALE...AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.  THESE STORMS
   WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT AND BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN NEW
   YORK BY MID AFTERNOON.  IF SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN
   FORM...THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/06/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z