SPC AC 091606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT FRI APR 09 2010
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE...THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE...AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SERN WY INTO
NRN CO LATE TODAY AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT GRAZES THE AREA
AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MATERIALIZES.
...SRN FL...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 16Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MLB TO
PGD. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT BUT
AREAS OF HEATING WERE OCCURRING ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SRN FL. ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
WORK AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE S OF THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE...BUT STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT. GIVEN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY HAIL
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY WITH
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST.
..JEWELL.. 04/09/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
|
