The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower mississippi river valley...mid south and tennessee river valley today.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 241235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN LA INTO WESTERN GA...AND NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TN/KY...INTO SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...AND SOUTHEAST IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS...TN....AND OH VALLEYS... ...WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS TX AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MULTIPLE WAVES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND LEAD TO A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO. ...LA/MS/AL/TN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ARE LEADING TO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND TN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER PARTS OF MO/IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSES INTO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE PARTS OF MO/IL/IND/KY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IN THIS AREA INVOLVES THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WHETHER IT WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE DAY. ..HART/SMITH.. 04/24/2010 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z