May 1, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 1 01:00:31 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid to upper mississippi valley later today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20100501 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100501 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100501 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100501 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 010057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-MS
   VLY/MID-SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO E TX...
   
   ...MID MS VLY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX...
   ...THREAT FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG TORNADOES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
   PARTS OF SERN MO...SWRN IL...AR AND EXTREME NERN TX THIS EVE AND
   WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS RVR
   VLY...
   
   STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK SIG TORNADOES WILL BE IN A
   CORRIDOR ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERE AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IS WARRANTED.
   
   00Z LZK HODOGRAPH/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO/SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH OF 235
   M2/S2...MLCAPES AROUND 3200 J/KG...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 7+ DEG C PER KM
   AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE PRE-FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE ARKLATEX AND WITHIN THE FREE WARM SECTOR
   ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR AND MOVE ENE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH/MDT RISK
   AREAS.  IN ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
   
   PLEASE REFER TO LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
   INFORMATION.
   
   ...UPR MIDWEST...
   PRIMARY PV-ANOMALY WAS TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY THIS
   EVENING WITH PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM ERN WI INTO NRN IL. 
   CONVECTIVE MODE HAS FAVORED CLUSTERING/LINE SEGMENTS AS COLD POOL
   GENERATION AND LARGELY LINE PARALLEL SHEAR DOMINATE STORM
   STRUCTURES.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENE TOWARD THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
   LATER THIS EVENING...LIKELY WEAKENING WITH TIME.  AT LEAST ISOLD
   DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY IN CHICAGOLAND NWD
   TOWARD GREEN BAY.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/01/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z