The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern plains this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 100558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE KS AND ERN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN KS...CNTRL AND ERN OK...WRN MO AND NW AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK AND LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY IN ERN OK AND SE KS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS WITH THIS CONVECTION BEING SHUNTED NNEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGH RISK AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS AND DRYLINE WILL RAPIDLY ORGANIZE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ACROSS ECNTRL OK WHERE FORECAST SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S F. THIS RESULTS IN A TONGUE OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NRN TX EXTENDING NWD INTO NRN OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS...A 75-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA REACHING THE 70 TO 80 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION AS STORMS GO UP ALONG THE DRYLINE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA AT 00Z SHOWING 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM WICHITA SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY WITH THE CELLS BECOMING TORNADIC TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THE TULSA AREA AND INTO FAR SE KS BY EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADOES COULD BE LONG-TRACK WITH STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD EXIST SSWWD INTO NRN AND WCNTRL TX WHERE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE NORTH OF SFC LOW IN CNTRL AND NRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN KS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT MOVING INTO WRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING. ..BROYLES/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/10/2010 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z