SPC AC 140055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE
MIDWEST...
...MIDWEST TO LWR GRTLKS...
00Z BUF SOUNDING EXHIBITED AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ABOUT 40 KTS. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
TO THE N OF A WRMFNT AND SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ATOP A STABLE LAYER
THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO PARTS OF NWRN PA AND THE SRN
TIER/WRN NY STATE. ISOLD HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT WIDESPREAD SVR IS NOT EXPECTED.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT IMPULSE...LIKELY AN MCV FROM EARLY DAY
MCS THAT TRACKED NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CNTRL IL AND CNTRL/NRN IND
OVERNIGHT. ROUGHLY 70-80 KTS OF WSW MID-LVL FLOW AND 6.5-7 DEG C
PER KM MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED
STORMS...MOSTLY MULTICELL IN VARIETY WITH A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
MRGLLY SVR HAILSTONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK ENE ALONG
FRONT/OUTFLOW INTO NRN/CNTRL IND LATER THIS EVENING AND MAY REACH
PARTS OF NWRN/WCNTRL OH OVERNIGHT. THUS...A SLGT RISK AREA HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED IN THESE REGIONS.
...TX...
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FWD/DRT HAVE COME IN CAPPED AND SFC-BASED
CONVECTION DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ASIDE FROM BRIEF ATTEMPTS OVER THE
SW TX MOUNTAINS. FARTHER E...ELEVATED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT FROM CNTRL TX NWD INTO THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS BAND HAS
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF DEEPENING AROUND SUNSET...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE STATE. ITS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THIS BAND WILL BEHAVE DURING THE NIGHT...BUT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION THUS FAR AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
NM NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OK. SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THOSE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.
..RACY.. 05/14/2010
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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