SPC AC 141602
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI
PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC CST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS ONT UPR LOW CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN QUE A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...80KT
500MB WIND MAX...WILL SHEAR EWD AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GRT LKS THIS AFTN/EVE. FARTHER W...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH
NOW OVER THE SWRN DESERTS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW
OVER UT BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING EWD INTO WRN CO EARLY SAT. AN
IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD CROSS
NM TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.
AT THE SFC...CDFNT FROM NWRN PA SWWD VICINITY OH RIVER TO NRN AR
INTO SERN NM. ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLC STATES...THE CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN/LWR MS VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN END OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STNRY
OVER THE SRN HI PLNS.
...LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
REF MCD 558
COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING...SUFFICIENT CAPE
/2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
40-45 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM KY/TN TO
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MDT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OVER AND E OF
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP SRN PA/NRN MD EWD UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
FLOW JUST S OF MID LEVEL JET WITH A HIGHER RISK OF WIND DAMAGE.
...SRN HI PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
MOIST LOW LVL SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/
SRN HI PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF MODERATE SWLY MID
LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH. UPSLOPE FLOW... DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND WEAK UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX/SE NM THRU
THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE N OF STALLING FRONT OVER ERN NM AND WRN PARTS OF THE LOW
ROLLING PLNS.
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...WEAK
CINH...AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE/ DEVELOP ESE TOWARD THE TRANS PECOS REGION/LWR
PLAINS BY EVENING. THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS. THE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH
GUSTY/DMGG WINDS OVER PARTS OF W CNTRL AND SW TX THIS EVE. OTHER
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS MAY CROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE FROM NE
MEXICO INTO TX TONIGHT.
..HALES/JIRAK.. 05/14/2010
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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