SPC AC 160600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX
TO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT/RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST...A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BELT OF WESTERLIES
WILL EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING MID
LEVEL UPPER LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A CONVECTIVELY
MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE ANGLING FROM PORTIONS OF TX TO THE TN
VALLEY/NC VICINITY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF A FAIRLY DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT. BENEATH A
BELT OF 25-35 KT CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
SEEMS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO
NORTH/WEST CENTRAL TX TO THE ARKLATEX. SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/SOME
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
...MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS...
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE...OTHER STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS. IN SPITE OF CORRIDORS OF STRONGER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...RELATIVELY MODEST MID
LEVEL /25 KT/ FLOW IS SUGGESTIVE OF RELATIVELY LIMITED STORM
ORGANIZATION/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
...ORE/SOUTHERN WA...
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
MULTIPLE SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION AHEAD OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. SUFFICIENT PW VALUES/INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY
STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY YIELD
SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ORE/PERHAPS SOUTHERN WA.
..GUYER/ROGERS.. 05/16/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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