The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over primarily oklahoma this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 191230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTHERN TEXAS...PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW OVER NERN CO THIS MORNING AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC BAND OF STRONG MID AND UPPER WINDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SRN PLAINS CONTINUED TO FEED A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW VICINITY OK PANHANDLE. ...SRN PLAINS... OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO AN MCS THIS MORNING MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OK. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE WRN OK INTO NWRN TX WILL LIKELY BECOME FOCUS FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS OK RISING THRU THE 60S COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG TO THE S AND E OF BOUNDARIES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOWS SOME WEAKENING AND VEERING DURING THE DAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COMBINATION E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND THEN SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NWRN TX VICINITY DRY LINE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE OUTBREAK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. FURTHER S INTO NWRN TX THE CAP WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE BUT WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE NO LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AS THOSE IN OK. STORMS WILL EVOLVE UPSCALE BY EVENING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE/PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD WRN AR. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/19/2010 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z