May 19, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 19 16:36:15 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20100519 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100519 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100519 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100519 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 191630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010
   
   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
   OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
   FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
   ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
   CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX.  BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
   S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
   LLJ.  MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
   LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
   BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
   OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   NWD WITH LLJ.
   
   ...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
   OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
   INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN.  ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.
   
   BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
   MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK.  A
   BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
   LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.
   
   THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
   SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
   LARGE HAIL.  GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
   SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
   COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.
   
   WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
   AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
   STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT.  COUPLED WITH
   INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
   INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
   AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
   SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
   SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
   THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
   HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
   OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION.  AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
   PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL. 
   BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z