SPC AC 040047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2010
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
POTENTIAL-VORTICITY ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
REGION WAS MOVING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/EAST OF A LEE TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO CNTRL NEB. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST HEATING AND
STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER NEB AND SRN SD WITH LESS
INSTABILITY FARTHER N IN NRN SD AND ND. EXPECT MAJORITY OF STORMS
AND HIGHEST SVR PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM
SW OF KFSD SWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB.
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT-LINED HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING 35-50 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR YOUNG SUPERCELL STORMS TO SPLIT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADO RISKS. MATURE STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREATS
SHOULD PEAK BY MID-EVENING W OF THE MO RIVER... TRANSITIONING TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS WRN IA AND SERN NEB
OVERNIGHT.
...MID-SOUTH TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A DISORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY
OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM CNTRL AR ENE ACROSS MIDDLE
TN AND ERN KY. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK WSW DEEP LAYER FLOW
AND AS STORMS COLLAPSE...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
...MIDDLE-ATLANTIC STATES AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
INITIAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WERE LINGERING OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND ARE WEAKENING
OVER DELMARVA. UPSTREAM...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE WITHIN
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NY...PA AND WRN VA. THESE STORMS AND ANY
ISOLATED SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH AS DIURNAL COOLING CONTINUES.
..RACY.. 06/04/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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