Jun 5, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 5 12:57:29 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid mississippi and ohio valleys this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20100605 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20100605 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20100605 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20100605 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 051254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH
   VLYS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREA...FROM THE LWR MO VLY TO THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
   CST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN BELT OF STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN TIER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   NOW OVER MT WILL AMPLIFY ESE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/IA BY THIS
   EVE...BEFORE FURTHER AMPLIFYING AS IT CONTINUES ESE INTO MI/IND
   EARLY SUN.  IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...RIDGE WILL BUILD N ACROSS
   THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS AS UPR LOW CONTINUES TO ELONGATE OVER THE
   CNTRL/WRN GULF CST.
   
   ...MID MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY TODAY/TONIGHT...
   WEAK MCSS NOW OVER IA/NRN MO/IL SHOULD CONTINUE ESE THROUGH LATER
   THIS MORNING AND FURTHER WEAKEN.  ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM ON
   ERN EDGE OF THESE CLUSTERS OVER PARTS OF IL/IND AND OH...WHERE MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL OCCUR BENEATH MODERATE...DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY MID-LVL FLOW /REF MCD 812/.  THE STORMS COULD
   ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS/BANDS.  THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
   SVR WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/NRN IND INTO CNTRL/NRN OH AND
   WRN PA...GIVEN 40+ KT 700 MB FLOW AND SBCAPE TO 2000 J/KG.
   
   BACK WEST...SFC HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY AND APPROACH OF
   AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT A NEW AREA OF STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL/NRN IA BY MID AFTN.  PW AOA 1.75 INCHES...SFC
   DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F...55-60 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...INCREASING
   UVV...AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FOSTER SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  THESE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOW MCS BY EVE AS UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
   AMPLIFY AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NRN IL/SRN MI.  EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS/BOWS SHOULD ACCELERATE DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/NRN
   IL...CNTRL/NRN IND AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF OH BY MID/LATE EVE. 
   STRONG...DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
    THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN/NRN PA
   EARLY SUN.
   WHILE THE MCS FORWARD-PROPAGATES INTO THE UPR OH VLY...
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP ALSO WILL
   SUPPORT BACKBUILDING/REGENERATIVE STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT/ OUTFLOW
   INTO NE MO AND CNTRL IL...WITH AT LEAST AN LIMITED THREAT FOR
   OVERNIGHT SVR WIND/HAIL.
   
   ...NERN STATES THIS AFTN/EVE...
   TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF PA...NY...AND NEW
   ENGLAND.  THE NEW ENGLAND ACTIVITY APPEARS TIED TO A MID-LVL
   DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD CLEAR THE CST LATER THIS MORNING. 
   UPSTREAM...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST PRESENCE OF ANOTHER
   IMPULSE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS THAT SHOULD GLANCE PARTS OF THE NERN
   STATES BY MID/LATE AFTN.
   
   STORMS NOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND CST SHOULD EXIT THE REGION IN TIME
   FOR AT LEAST SOME DAYTIME HEATING.  GREATER LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION
   WILL OCCUR FARTHER W...OVER NY/PA.  LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY
   STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
   POCKETS OF 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE.  AS THE GRT LKS IMPULSE CONTINUES
   EWD...A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD EVOLVE OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN
   NY...AND NRN PA.  SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN. 
   INSTABILITY AND 40+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED
   STORMS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.  THE
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE CST BY EVE...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   MAINLY DMGG WIND.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTN...
   ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SRN PA SWD INTO
   MD/WV/VA.  REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN EDGE OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW.  COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STEEP
   LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SETUP COULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS/BANDS
   WITH DMGG WIND/HAIL.
   
   ...ERN CO THIS AFTN/EVE...
   ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT
   AS LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASES IN ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD
   FRONT ATTENDANT TO MT IMPULSE.  AN ISOLD HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND/OR A LANDSPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PALMER
   DIVIDE.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
   A FEW STRONG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN/EVE OVER ND...NE
   SD...AND NW MN AS MID-LVL COLD POCKET WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH
   OVERSPREADS AXIS OF MODEST SFC MOISTURE EXTENDING NW FROM ERN
   NEB/IA.  THE STORMS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL BEFORE
   DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...FL THIS AFTN...
   TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NUMEROUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
   MUCH OF FL THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND E CST. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING AT MID-LVLS RELATIVE TO
   FRI...WITH PW REMAINING HIGH.  THIS SETUP MAY YIELD ISOLD DMGG WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS
   MAY OCCUR THIS AFTN IN MODERATE SWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF GULF UPR
   LOW.
   
   ..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/05/2010
   
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