SPC AC 070058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2010
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE CO
TO NRN NEB AND SE SD...
...SE WY/NE CO/NRN AND WRN NEB/SE SD AREA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM SE
SD WSWWD INTO N CENTRAL/SW NEB...WHILE OTHER STORMS PERSIST IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SE WY. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 02-03Z.
UNTIL THEN...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BROADER CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG
THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER SWLY FLOW. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MOIST /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND STORMS ARE STILL
DISCRETE ACROSS SE SD. OTHERWISE... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE.
FARTHER S INTO CO...HIGH-BASED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORM WITH MERGING OUTFLOWS IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF DENVER...AND FARTHER
SE INTO SE CO ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORMS STABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVECTION WEAKENS BY 02-03Z.
...TX/LA NWD/NEWD TO LAKE MI AREA...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY BY 03Z AS A RESULT OF
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM
TX/LA NEWD TO NRN IL/SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NOT STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTION. THE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED BY EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS MOVING NWWD NEAR
THE NW GULF COAST...AND NEWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO NW IL.
..THOMPSON.. 07/07/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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