SPC AC 201607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM UPPER
MI/WI SWWD TO ERN KS AND NERN OK...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL VORT
MAX OVER KS/NEB. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD...AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MI/WI INTO KS/OK. POCKETS OF
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 70S TO YIELD MLCAPE OVER 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE RISK AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER PORTIONS OF WI/UPPER MI NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
HAVE ADDED A 30 PERCENT WIND AREA FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHEAST IA
WHERE MODELS SHOW HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE
AND FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS.
..HART/GARNER.. 08/20/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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