SPC AC 210051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
LWR MI AND ERN UPPER MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MO OZARKS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK
PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS LATTER FEATURE...A DEVELOPING
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAKENING TRAILING
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
...NRN LOWER MI AND THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...
WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...BUT THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW SPREADING INTO/THROUGH THE REGION
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER AND PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST/EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.
...LOWER CNTRL PLAINS/MO OZARKS...
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT MOISTURE
CONTENT IS SUFFICIENT TO STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CAPE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE... COUPLED
WITH A STRENGTHENING /IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AT 850 MB/ SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. IF
THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD
POOL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 08/21/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
|
