SPC AC 080100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NERN TX AND VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHILE A SECOND/LARGER UPPER
SYSTEM DIGS/EXPANDS SWD ALONG THE W COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER SYSTEM --
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...T.D.
HERMINE AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
NNWWD ACROSS TX AND VICINITY.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NERN TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
TX...AND EWD INTO AR/LA. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG A
VERY WEAK THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX EWD ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX REGION -- WITH SEVERAL CELLS WITHIN THIS ZONE HAVING
EXHIBITED SOME LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
OTHER ROTATING CELLS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED CLOSER TO THE
REMNANT CENTER OF HERMINE -- I.E. OVER CENTRAL TX. GIVEN
AMPLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA...WILL MAINTAIN
A CRESCENT-SHAPED SLIGHT RISK AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE BRIEF/ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DIURNAL COOLING...BUT AN AXIS OF SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE AIR
PERSISTS FROM NRN KY NEWD INTO UPSTATE NY -- WHICH WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. GIVEN 50
TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ACROSS THIS AREA...SHEAR REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...UNTIL THREAT DIMINISHES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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