SPC AC 041550
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NV SWD THRU SERN CA
AND WESTERN AZ...
...SWRN U.S...
SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SEWD ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. CLOSED UPR LOW WILL FORM BY THIS
EVENING SCENTRAL CA WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
SRN NV SWD THRU LWR CO RIVER VALLEY.
A MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FEED NWD THRU SRN CA/AZ INTO NV/SRN UT
WITH PWATS TO 1 INCH. COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
7-8C/KM AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTION SRN NV/UT SWD THRU WRN AZ/SERN
CA.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG DESERT
VALLEYS. WITH 30-40KT OF PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SEVERE
CONCERN WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRIEF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL JET ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN CA ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES
VICINITY LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE HAIL SIZE WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN MOST STORM
ACTIVITY.
..HALES/SMITH.. 10/04/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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