SPC AC 091948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH INCREASING CU AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION /NOW OVER SWRN SD/ AS MODEST
HEATING/MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER CELL THIS AFTERNOON --
MAINLY IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
..GOSS.. 10/09/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010/
...SD/NEB AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN WOBBLE SWD TONIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SD AND NE WY ROTATE AROUND THE NRN AND WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED
COMMA CLOUD ACCOMPANYING THE LOW. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE COMMA HEAD AT THE NW EXTENT OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...WHERE ASCENT OF THE MODESTLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH AN LFC. FARTHER E...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED BY A REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER.
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL VORTICITY WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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