Oct 26, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 26 10:14:45 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ohio and tennessee valleys and great lakes....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20101026 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20101026 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20101026 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20101026 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 260606
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF INDIANA AND WRN
   OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN IL...WRN AND NRN
   KY...INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI AND CNTRL OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS/TN/OH
   VALLEYS...GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER MN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
   RAPIDLY AS AN INTENSE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND 110 KT
   MIDLEVEL JET MAX EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE
   SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MN/WI BORDER SWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND INTO NRN AR AT 12Z...MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE WRN PA BORDER BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...BROAD SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE NWD WITH A 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET. 
   
   --- AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY ---
   
   ...MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...TN
   VALLEY...
   
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
   SRN WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG
   WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE...FAVORING EITHER A
   SQUALL LINE OR QLCS STORM MODE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD...MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH MID TO UPPER
   60S DEWPOINTS...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD
   FRONT/SQUALL LINE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES
   INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRECEDING
   THE FRONT FROM WRN KY...SRN AND CNTRL INDIANA INTO WRN OH. EFFECTIVE
   SRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 AND BUNKERS MOTIONS OVER 60
   KTS SUGGEST A FEW LONG LIVED AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES MAY
   OCCUR. THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN
   COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
   NWD...ALTHOUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A WIND THREAT AS FAR N AS NY.
   
   FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...STRONG SHEAR AND MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER A VERY LARGE AREA FROM THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...EPISODES OF SEVERE
   WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   WHICH WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM MS/AL INTO THE APPALACHIANS.
   
   ..JEWELL/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/26/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z