Storm Prediction Center Nov 30, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Public Severe Weather Outlook

Nov 30, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 30 01:56:45 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
The SPC is forecasting ...the storm prediction center in norman ok is forecasting the possible development of tornadoes...potentially strong...and damaging winds over parts of the la...ms and wrn al this evening and overnight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic


Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic


Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 300021
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010
   
   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
   WRN AL/SRN TN...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOLOW OVER NERN LA WITH NUMEROUS STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
   DRYLINE. TO THE E...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE MESOLOW INTO S
   CNTRL MS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO INCREASE OVER
   CNTRL/SRN MS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
   EXISTS S OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 68-72 F RANGE.
   THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWS STEEPER THAN FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WITH A STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND
   400 M2/S2 VERY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. 
   
   THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR
   AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MESOLOW...EXTENDING SEWD ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT...FROM CNTRL/NERN LA INTO CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS FAR WRN AL BY
   EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH CURRENT WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY OVER SRN MS/LA HAS
   NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
   OVERALL FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME...WITH CELL
   REGENERATION/INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-06Z. THESE CELLS
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS THEY
   CROSS THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE SOME VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS
   THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE N...SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES AS FAR E AS WRN AL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/30/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z