Dec 16, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 16 15:48:46 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20101216 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20101216 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20101216 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20101216 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 161545
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0945 AM CST THU DEC 16 2010
   
   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BLOCK NEAR GREENLAND WILL KEEP EXISTING UPR LOW QSTNRY OVER THE ST
   LAWRENCE VLY THIS PERIOD AS DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING SRN MN/NRN IA
   SHEARS ESE TO THE LWR GRT LKS.  MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LWR 48...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SRN
   BRANCH FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO THE S ATLANTIC CST.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS...WITH
   REINFORCING SURGE IN WAKE OF TN SFC WAVE LIKELY REACHING THE GULF
   AND S ATLANTIC CSTS BY 12Z FRI.  LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   AHEAD OF THE TN WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS SYSTEM DAMPENS IN
   CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NC.  WHILE AREAS/BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
   MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTN E OF THE WAVE...DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
   ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/
   THUNDER.
   
   ..HALES/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z