SPC AC 131652
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH TX...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL DIG DEEP
INTO MEXICO AS STRONGEST MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CA. WITH TIME SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW DOES
SPREAD UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF THIS STRONGER FLOW IT APPEARS A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO NERN
MEXICO...WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SFC LOW EVOLVING SOUTH OF BRO LATE.
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO DEEP SOUTH TX RESULTING IN WEAK
BUOYANCY...MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS
GRADUAL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE....ALTHOUGH INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC DEW POINTS
RISING TO NEAR 60F SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROTATE. THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
AND THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF CONVECTION DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT
RISK.
..DARROW.. 01/13/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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