SPC AC 050557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VLY AND
ERN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ON TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX ERN PAC
BASIN UPR TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY
WITH WEAKER IMPULSES EJECTING ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPR MS
VLY.
IN THE LWR LVLS...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM SERN NEB TOWARD SRN WI BY
TUESDAY EVENING WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER NCNTRL OK
AND SCNTRL KS WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT TOWARD CNTRL MO. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM THE CORN BELT SWD INTO OK EARLY IN THE
DAY WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
GRTLKS...MID-MS VLY...ARKLATEX AND CNTRL TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A
WRMFNT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO THE LWR LKS AND CNTRL NY. BOTH FRONTS
WILL BE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
...MID/UPR MS VLY SWWD TO THE ERN PLAINS STATES...
ROBUST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE ERN PLAINS STATES TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS WILL
CONTINUE ENE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP WITH POSSIBLE HAIL.
MEANWHILE...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PRESENCE OF 60S SFC
DEW POINTS INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL IA SWWD TO SCNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK BY
TUESDAY AFTN. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD DURING THE LATE
AFTN...TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.
EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE FAVORED AS SHEAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE PARALLEL. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MORE
DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AND
OK WHERE THE RICHEST LLVL MOISTURE/STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR
AMIDST A COMPARATIVELY MORE LINE-PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION TO THE
SHEAR VECTORS. LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE SLGT RISK AREA WITH TORNADOES PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF OK NEWD INTO WRN MO.
SOME THREAT OF SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS ERN OK...CNTRL MO
AND NWRN IL/SRN WI OVERNIGHT.
...CNTRL TX...
ANY TSTM INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK SOUTH OF THE
RED RVR AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED INVOF THE
DRYLINE. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE SURGING CDFNT/DRYLINE AS THE EML COOLS/MOISTENS UPON
ARRIVAL OF SRN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE UPR TROUGH.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 35-40 KTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DMGG WINDS.
...CNTRL NY...
MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL WARM COINCIDENT WILL A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER TODAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
A WEAK MID-LVL IMPULSE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NY DURING PEAK HEATING AND
MAY BE IMPETUS FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS IF CINH CAN BE BREACHED. LAPSE
RATES OF NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM AND LOCATION ALONG SRN EDGE OF 60-70
KTS OF WLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. ATTM...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SVR
STORMS...MAINLY GIVEN DEGREE OF CAP AND SOME QUESTION ON HOW ROBUST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY BE.
..RACY.. 04/05/2010
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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