SPC AC 250521
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN STATES MONDAY AS A
SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA. A LOW-LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TO THE NORTH...IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WHERE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT
CAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
WHEN THE CAP BECOMES WEAK WITH THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IN NERN
ND AND NRN MN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE
30 TO 40 KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTING SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF CELLS CAN INITIATE...THEN
THE STRONGER CORES COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT EXPECTED...WILL
ISSUE LOW-END PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...CAROLINAS/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN NC EXTENDING WWD
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON ONLY SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS.
..BROYLES.. 07/25/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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