SPC AC 161647
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES...WITH THE
PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE A MARGINAL RISK OF
LOCALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NATION.
...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY...
THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE SAGGED INTO THIS
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
FROM PORTIONS OF VA/NC INTO TN. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK
SHEAR...HIGH PWAT VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
WET MICROBURSTS IN PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM
CLUSTERS.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
REMNANT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SOME
CONCERN FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF OK. DEEP MIXED BL WILL PROMOTE RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND APPROACH ND BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EVENING. RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..HART.. 08/16/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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