Nov 24, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 24 17:26:57 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20101124 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20101124 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 241725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRINCIPAL UPPER AIR FEATURE WILL REMAIN STG CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MT...AND FCST TO MOVE FROM ERN ND
   ACROSS NRN MN TO LS THROUGH DAY-2.  POSITIVELY-TILTED/MID-UPPER
   TROUGH WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM LOW...POSITIONED AT 26/00Z FROM MN/WI
   BORDER AREA SWWD ACROSS IA...S-CENTRAL KS...TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN
   NM.
   
   ASSOCIATED SFC ARCTIC FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 24/16Z FROM ERN NEB SWWD
   OVER WRN KS AND ERN CO -- IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY IN PERIOD. 
   BY 26/00Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER OH
   SWWD ACROSS WRN TN...NRN MS AND TX GULF COASTAL PLAIN...THEN BY
   26/12Z...MOVING ACROSS INLAND MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS...TO NEAR MS RIVER MOUTH AND ACROSS NWRN GULF. 
   MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NEWD FROM CURRENT
   POSITION OVER SRN/WRN OZARKS...REACHING PORTIONS INDIANA/OH AROUND
   BEGINNING OF PERIOD AND CROSSING PORTIONS PA/NJ BY 26/12Z.  WARM
   FRONT WILL FAR OUTRUN HIGH-THETAE SFC AIR...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
   FARTHER SW ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGIONS.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO TX COAST...
   EARLY IN PERIOD...BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD
   CARRY OVER FROM END OF DAY-1 INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...FROM LOWER OH
   VALLEY SWWD ACROSS ERN/SRN OZARKS TO SE OK AND PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE
   TX.  ACTIVITY COULD BACKBUILD THROUGH N-CENTRAL TX AS FAR SW AS
   CENTRAL TX HILL COUNTRY...WHERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY
   COMBINATION OF CAPPING IN 700-850 MB LAYER AND MORE MEAGER
   PREFRONTAL MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS.  OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND SWD TO
   MID-UPPER TX COAST...WARM-SECTOR SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F WILL
   BE COMMON...WITH SOME 70S OVER E TX.  SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   PARCELS AND WEAK CAPPING ARE EVIDENT IN 25/12Z FCST SOUNDINGS FROM N
   TX ACROSS SE OK AND AR...WITH PEAK MLCAPE IN 500-800 J/KG RANGE OVER
   NE TX/SE OK...DIMINISHING NEWD ACROSS AR AND SWWD OVER N TX.  STG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE FCST EARLY
   DAY-2...ALONG WITH 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ALTHOUGH LINEAR STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND WEAK MORNING STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC BY THIS TIME
   SHOULD KEEP SVR GUST POTENTIAL MRGL.
   
   THROUGH AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL SFC AIR MASS FROM E TX ACROSS AR AND
   NRN LA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST.  MEANWHILE DIABATIC HEATING
   SHOULD OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND YIELD WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES.  MAIN
   CONVECTIVE MODE NEAR FRONT WILL REMAIN LINEAR GIVEN PARALLEL NATURE
   OF FLOW ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY...WHOSE MOVEMENT MAY EVEN
   YIELD ANAFRONTAL REGIME WHERE FRONTAL CURRENT UNDERCUTS CONVECTION. 
   WARM SECTOR WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...BUT ALSO ONLY WEAKLY
   CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT BENEATH POOR LAPSE RATES...CASTING UNCERTAINTY
   ON INITIATION/COVERAGE OF PREFRONTAL TSTMS.  GIVEN THESE
   FACTORS...WILL MAINTAIN MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z