SPC AC 100830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED/EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN PERIPHERY/BASAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WITH PHASING
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PENINSULA. IN THE
WEST...THE INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH MAY
YIELD SOME TSTM POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA.
...FL PENINSULA...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF EXTENSIVE EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION COMPLICATES THE FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS
JUNCTURE. WHILE VERY STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC /BUT GRADUALLY VEERING
LOW LEVEL/ WIND FIELDS AND RATHER MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE POSSIBLE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS/BOWS...UNKNOWNS EXIST REGARDING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
MORE OF A CONCERN. WHILE THE CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL ONLY INCLUDE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES...REGION MAY ULTIMATELY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
...UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
BRUNT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...WHILE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PIVOT
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS
VICINITY. GIVEN COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT BENEATH THE CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH...EVEN MODEST HEATING AND 40S/SOME 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
COULD YIELD STRONG/SEVERE LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 03/10/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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