Apr 4, 2010 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 4 07:24:46 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100404 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20100404 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 040723
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VLY AND
   ERN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPLEX...POSITIVE-TILT AND FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO
   ARRIVE IN THE WRN STATES ON MONDAY WILL STEADILY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL CONTAIN
   TWO PRIMARY PIECES...ONE WHICH WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO
   THE UPR GRTLKS TUESDAY AFTN...WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
   DROPPING MORE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   IN THE LWR LVLS...A SFC LOW OVER SERN NEB EARLY TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP
   ENE TOWARD NRN IL DURING THE NIGHT AS SECONDARY...ALBEIT
   WEAK...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER CNTRL OK.  A CDFNT WILL STRENGTHEN
   AND ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE ERN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...MID/UPR MS VLY TO THE ERN PLAINS...
   LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS...LIKELY PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL...WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
   EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE GRTLKS
   REGION AND WEAKEN AS THE LLJ BACKS AND REFOCUSES ACROSS THE ERN
   PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH.  THE
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE QUITE ROBUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.  THUS...THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY
   60-65 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS...WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ARRIVES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN.
   
   AS THE NRN-MOST UPR IMPULSE SWINGS TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...FIRST
   TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE CDFNT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY
   WITH A SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS AS CINH IS
   WEAKENED...AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN OK.
   
   ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN UPR TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
   LINE-PARALLEL SHEAR ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT EXCEPT THE SRN-END WHERE
   VECTORS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY PERPENDICULAR.  THUS...STORMS WILL
   TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINES MOSTLY...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
   MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  WHILE DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE UPR MS VLY INVOF THE SFC
   LOW...AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND
   MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES WILL EXIST.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/04/2010
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z