May 14, 2010 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri May 14 07:20:48 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100514 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20100514 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 140719
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SCNTRL U.S. 
   SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MODEL
   FORECASTS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CNTRL TX SUGGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS SFC TEMPS WARM. SOME MODEL
   FORECASTS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH
   CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND
   SUGGESTS THE STRONG CELLS MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT
   AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH END UP BEING REASONABLE. 
   
   FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...MODEL FORECASTS
   DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   IN ERN AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
   ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z