May 16, 2010 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 16 07:14:11 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20100516 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20100516 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability Legend Image
   SPC AC 160712
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
   SFC...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS WEST TX EXTENDING NNWWD INTO
   SE CO WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
   THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
   FROM SE CO SSEWD ONTO THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP. THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WOULD BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z