SPC AC 310734
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN
BELT OF WLYS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL IMPULSES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS REGIME INCLUDING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CNTRL/SRN TX. FARTHER NE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS.
...CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ENE-WSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. SOME
OF THE EARLY MORNING STORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY PROGRESS SEWD
INTO A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS ZONE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
EXIST WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
MODERATE DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROGRESSIVE
LINES AND CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
...SRN PLAINS AREA...
SWRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO WRN TX AND OK AS THE
CNTRL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD MID MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ZONE OF LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT WILL
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.
FARTHER SOUTH....STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL AND SOUTH TX WITHIN
THE ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SRN
STREAM IMPULSE. STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BELT OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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