SPC AC 160508
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURES FOR THIS FCST WILL BE
1. CYCLONE OVER COASTAL CA REGION AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...AS
DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL AND SREF PROGS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON LONGITUDINAL POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE EITHER
JUST ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE...STG GEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS
FEATURE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD TO SSEWD INVOF SRN CA COAST AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO ITS NW-N.
2. BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED/FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES.
PRESENCE OF ERN TROUGHING AND OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER GULF COAST
REGION WILL PRECLUDE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT SVR E OF
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS PERIOD BENEATH
COLD-CORE REGION OF UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS TO ITS NE ACROSS PORTIONS
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS. HOWEVER...WEAKNESSES IN BOTH
LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SVR RISK IS MINIMAL AT
MOST.
..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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