SPC AC 140714
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL/SW GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ARKLATEX TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A
30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
WITH THE JET MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTS DURING THE DAY.
MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY FROM THE MS DELTA EWD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE FL PANHANDLE AT 15Z TUESDAY SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.
A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE MOIST AXIS.
..BROYLES.. 11/14/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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