DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 VALID TIME 222000Z - 231200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 49020253 48380096 48030020 46759728 45609572 44529420 43549375 43099470 43129589 43279760 43830001 43960141 44200325 44460426 44540526 43970683 43810859 43561017 43641099 44201181 45401117 45830970 46490860 46890823 47710813 48720801 49010762 49040435 49020253 0.05 45220514 45820647 48190703 48580668 48660598 48050310 46890089 45650079 44790181 44900324 45220514 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 49239989 47759682 46499394 45159141 44558973 43618835 42678844 41998890 41458983 41109122 40929231 40689375 40439606 40589779 40500013 40550098 41110243 42220328 43230322 43880365 44410449 44550516 44330641 44100810 43490964 43441060 43771171 44861222 45731185 46071037 46390958 47190907 48090918 48810972 49171020 0.15 49320202 48059901 46569563 45839413 44909187 43079155 42099236 41779385 42349537 42669710 42979842 43399995 43700103 44200236 44540309 44690438 44750571 44640740 44500870 44280999 44591066 44991069 45620980 46400898 47250834 47620825 49240863 0.30 48790600 48300366 47560143 46490109 45560163 45210333 45320458 45460565 45680637 46190680 47170676 48530691 48790600 SIGN 48240490 48160369 46640000 45230029 44880212 45010322 45510532 46040601 47810604 48240490 && ... WIND ... 0.05 34217605 35407861 36308189 39168537 39878697 40249195 39829469 39219714 37849915 36760071 36070253 36740340 37490314 38840310 41790329 43930402 44330542 43890701 42781074 43511245 45101275 46721077 47361081 49591156 99999999 49469601 47249284 44618604 43288232 42407863 41697761 41007636 40937449 40047287 0.15 49200171 48349956 47829816 46719616 45399296 44449078 43359001 42578997 42249060 41569167 41009346 40749463 40609593 40579668 40929779 41529850 41899896 42569938 43069971 43550046 43930132 44170231 44590361 44600484 44590616 44400694 44270819 44060952 43961087 44401119 45101100 45491012 45780957 47100835 47760832 49310854 0.15 41068426 41488325 41518265 41528189 41718082 41397988 40747964 39927987 39278083 39138187 39248398 39518502 39968513 40438494 40768463 41068426 0.30 49100267 48240160 46379970 45209996 44750197 45150457 45620625 46320731 47140763 49160696 0.45 48080334 47180134 45740127 45050218 45330425 45990576 46620589 47280593 48100503 48080334 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... MDT 48080334 47180134 45740127 45050218 45330425 45990576 46620589 47280593 48100503 48080334 SLGT 48990119 48349956 47829816 47239708 46569563 46199485 45389296 44449078 43359001 42578997 42249060 41569167 41009346 40749464 40609593 40579668 40929779 41529850 41899896 42569938 43069971 43540045 43700103 44140220 44590361 44600484 44590616 44400694 44270819 44060952 43961087 44401119 45101100 45491012 45700971 46400898 47100845 47760832 48220839 49170860 SLGT 41508316 41528254 41498201 41708088 41417987 40767963 39947983 39298081 39138189 39258390 39398457 39558498 39958517 40328500 40708471 41098423 41508316 TSTM 31771302 32611271 32901062 33781000 34800939 35640901 36450879 37410859 38710755 40210541 42520528 42350758 42080956 42201161 42381260 42771362 43101486 44771431 46611315 47051461 47471610 47821699 48261766 48921810 49391990 99999999 49269548 47969157 46598797 45698486 44608183 99999999 43757726 43277544 42137452 42137174 41416918 99999999 44356684 44446880 44947001 45747142 99999999 38999117 38329126 37849092 37609024 37498910 37598815 37858693 38148595 38638546 39108566 39468641 39708856 39609039 38999117 99999999 38099757 36369905 33610240 32240268 31650117 31229993 30859926 30189855 29779779 30019700 30309647 31079622 32249618 33239619 34259590 35049543 36019496 36499468 36939444 37759408 38439431 38639520 38099757 99999999 28039603 28139679 27789740 27219754 26589746 26029739 25719718 && THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ISN 35 S N60 45 WNW MBG 60 S Y22 40 WSW 2WX 30 S MLS 15 N MLS 55 WNW GDV 25 E OLF 15 ESE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 35 WNW DVL 40 ESE DVL 25 NNW FAR 20 SSE DTL 35 NE AXN 35 NNE MSP 45 NW VOK 10 NE LNR 40 ENE DBQ 10 SSE DBQ 20 S CID 25 SW OXV 40 WNW LWD 30 WSW SDA 20 SSE LNK 30 E GRI 40 ESE BUB 10 NE BUB 30 E ANW 35 NNE ANW 50 N VTN 35 SE PHP 30 WNW PHP 45 NW RAP 40 ENE GCC 35 WNW GCC 25 S SHR 25 NNW WRL 40 SW COD 25 NNW JAC 20 S WEY 30 NNE WEY 20 SE LVM 35 E LVM 40 E 3HT 50 E LWT 70 NE LWT 65 ESE HVR 70 NE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 35 W CLE 10 WNW CLE 35 NNW YNG FKL 35 NNW LBE 20 NNE MGW 35 E PKB 20 ESE UNI 30 ENE LUK 20 NNW LUK 45 NW LUK 25 SSE MIE 20 ENE MIE 30 SE FWA 30 W FDY 35 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GBN 20 S GBN 55 W SAD 35 S SOW 50 NE SOW 15 WNW GUP 35 WSW FMN 10 NNE CEZ 25 NE MTJ 25 SW FCL 15 SSE DGW 45 NNW RWL 40 NW RKS 35 E MLD 20 NW MLD 15 NNE BYI 40 SW SUN 30 SW SMN 3DU 25 WNW MSO 35 WSW 3TH 30 ENE GEG 45 N GEG 70 ENE OMK 65 NNW OMK ...CONT... 25 NNW RRT 15 ENE ELO 20 WNW MQT 10 NNW PLN 80 E OSC ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 10 NNW UCA 35 NNE MSV 10 SE ORH 45 ENE ACK ...CONT... 40 SSE EPM 20 W BHB 45 NNW AUG 70 NE EFK ...CONT... 45 WNW STL 30 ENE VIH 25 W FAM 15 SE FAM 20 SSE MDH 45 SW EVV 15 NE OWB 10 WSW SDF 35 NNE SDF 50 E BMG 20 SSW IND 20 ESE DEC 40 WSW SPI 45 WNW STL ...CONT... 15 E HUT 35 SW AVK 35 W LBB 35 NW MAF 45 WNW SJT 35 ESE SJT 40 NE JCT 45 NW BAZ 15 ENE BAZ 45 ESE AUS 20 SSW CLL 35 NNE CLL 20 NE CRS 45 SE GYI 35 NE DUA 20 ENE MLC 35 NE MKO 10 SSE GMJ 15 SSE JLN 50 NNE JLN 35 SE OJC 30 WSW OJC 15 E HUT ...CONT... 50 SSE PSX 50 S VCT CRP 40 S CRP 45 N BRO BRO 20 SE BRO.