SPC AC 011627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2011
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST...
...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DEEP OCCLUDED LOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO WRN AL AND SERN PARTS OF
MS/LA AS OF LATE MORNING WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD...LIKELY REACHING
THE TIDEWATER REGION SWWD THROUGH GA/FL PNHDL BY 12Z SUN. REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SHELF WATERS INTO PARTS OF FAR
SWRN AL AND THE FL PNHDL SINCE ABOUT 13Z...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN-NCNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MOIST BUT NARROWING
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PW
VALUES APPROACHING 1.5-1.6 INCHES.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OFF THE GULF...
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST TODAY WITHIN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BUT RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES REMAINING INLAND PORTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
MASS.
..MEAD/STOPPKOTTE.. 01/01/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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