SPC AC 251242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM
WHILE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLONE ANALYZED ALONG THE SRN LA COAST WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
ALONG STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH NRN
FL/SRN GA. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG MARINE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS.
...FL...
ASIDE FROM ABOVE-MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
STATE...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT --CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PENINSULA-- DELINEATES THE NRN EXTENSION OF A MORE FULLY
MODIFIED AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MARK THE NRN EXTENT
OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE
PERIOD. PERHAPS THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA BY 26/12Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR /QLCS/ WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
A MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME
MAY BECOME MANIFEST LATER TODAY ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODESTLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. MOREOVER...THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
SECOND SCENARIO...THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THE
TRACK OF THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG INTENSIFYING
COASTAL BOUNDARY WITH ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINING
OFFSHORE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD /I.E.
26/09Z-12Z/ ALONG THE NC OUTER BANKS WHERE SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 01/25/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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