SPC AC 260532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS UPPER
RIDGE...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL STEADILY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...SOUTH FL...
WITH AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVING
MOVED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SEEMS UNLIKELY EARLY
TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FL. ACCORDINGLY...A RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT OTHERWISE CLEARS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING.
...NC...
AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR ALONG THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY...SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ATTENDANT
WARM/MOIST SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST. AS
SUCH...INLAND SURFACE BASED TSTM AND DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL
ALSO APPEARS RATHER LOW. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY INLAND WILL
OTHERWISE BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TSTMS BUT TOO MEAGER FOR
APPRECIABLE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TODAY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS UPSTATE PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST VA AMID WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY NEAR THE UPPER LOW
TRACK/REGION OF STRONG DPVA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT 10 PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER/COHEN/GRAMS.. 01/26/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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