SPC AC 041917
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2011
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH. EXPANDED GENERAL THUNDER AREA A BIT FARTHER N ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AS INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR 700 MB DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
..JEWELL.. 02/04/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2011/
...CNTRL GULF COAST TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
MIDLEVEL LOW/PV ANOMALY OVER NWRN TX IS FORECAST TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE OH AND MS RIVERS. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT THE NNEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER SE...SURFACE
CYCLONE ANALYZED ALONG COLD FRONT OFF THE SRN LA COAST IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD THE FL PNHDL...ALONG WARM FRONT RETREATING
NEWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. BY
TONIGHT...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OFF THE SERN
ATLANTIC COAST WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE
NC OUTER BANKS BY SAT MORNING.
WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDANT TO ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN/ENLARGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A
BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. A PLUME OF STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND
THE SUSTENANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS TO THE N OF RETREATING SURFACE
FRONT.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT ANY
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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