SPC AC 170053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST WED FEB 16 2011
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER
PAC COAST REGION AND RIDGING ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA...OVERLAID
UPON NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES. ONE OF
THESE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS
NRN CA/EXTREME NWRN NV -- IS FCST TO EJECT RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN GREAT
BASIN REGION AND ACROSS NRN ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD. SFC/LOW-LEVEL
COLD FRONT -- AIDED ATTM OVER NRN UT/SERN ID REGION BY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS REMAINDER SERN NV AND SRN/CENTRAL UT.
...PAC COAST AND GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS...
STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RELATED TO COLD AIR ALOFT -- I.E.
FROM 00Z RAOBS...-36 DEG C AT 500 MB AT SLE...-33 C AT 500 MB AT REV
AND -29 C AT 530 MB AT OAK -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC TSTM POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN BOTH GEN
THUNDER AREAS AREAS. THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL FOR SVR POTENTIAL...GIVEN
LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO SUPPORT MUCAPES TO NEAR 100 J/KG OVER NRN CA FROM SPINE OF
SIERRAS WWD THEN NWD ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MEANWHILE...ABOVE MUCH
DRIER NEAR-SFC CONDITIONS SUBJECT TO QUICK NOCTURNAL
COOLING...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM REMAINING FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVING EWD AND NEWD ACROSS NRN UT/SERN ID/EXTREME SWRN WY
REGION.
..EDWARDS.. 02/17/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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