SPC AC 061247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2011
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
MS/AL. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND ALONG A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM GA NORTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN GA WILL TRACK
INTO NC/VA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
YIELD SHEAR PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
VERY LOW CAPE VALUES /GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG/. INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FROM FL/GA/SC INTO THE DELMARVA. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS ALL THAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN AREAS OF STRONG
SHEAR...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES TODAY.
HOWEVER...IF INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.
..HART/COHEN.. 03/06/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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