Mar 23, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 23 16:27:44 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110323 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110323 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110323 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110323 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 231624
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH TO MUCH OF WV/FAR WESTERN VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...TN/OH VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   PER MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE FIRST PIECE OF A COMPLEX
   MIDWEST MID/UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE CROSSING THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY...WHILE A SECONDARY PORTION/JET STREAK OVER THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY
   THIS EVENING. A SURFACE CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
   IL/INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY/INITIAL COLD FRONT SPREADING
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   A BROAD...MODESTLY MOIST /50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...BUT WEAKLY
   CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
   OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AIDED
   BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ONE OR MORE BROKEN
   BANDS OF FAST MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG BUT ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
   /ESPECIALLY OH VALLEY VICINITY/ AND THE POSSIBILITY TO MLCAPE TO
   UPWARDS OF AROUND 1250-1500 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...VERY
   STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
   MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH CONGEALING
   STORMS/BOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO PROBABLE WITH TIME. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR.
   
   THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SOUTHWARD. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   VERY STRONG BENEATH THE JET CORE AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF
   MS/AL/GA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 60 F.
   HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE COMPARED
   TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH...ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET...AND THIS
   WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A DEGREE. STILL...THE STRONG WIND PROFILES AND
   SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID LEVEL BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA AND THE ADJACENT OH
   VALLEY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY
   SURFACE WIND SHIFT...WITH AID FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MO VALLEY. HERE...COLD THERMAL PROFILES
   ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW-TOPPED
   STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.
   
   OTHERWISE...TSTMS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PROGRESSES
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   CONTINUING.
   
   ..GUYER/COHEN.. 03/23/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z