SPC AC 061930
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED APR 06 2011
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..DIAL.. 04/06/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT WED APR 06 2011/
...PACIFIC NW COAST TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE SWD PROGRESSION OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER
THE NERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA
THROUGH EARLY THU. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCED
ASCENT MAY FOSTER SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SRN AZ...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
EJECTS E/NEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ/NM. DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...PER LATEST OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS...FORCED ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS /ROOTED AROUND 600 MB/ IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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