Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 281615
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011
   
   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN
   SEABOARD FROM NORTH FL INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...EASTERN STATES...
   A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  MEANWHILE...THE
   PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
   EASTERN NY/PA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  SPORADIC
   DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE THROUGH THE
   DAY UNTIL STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ONE AREA OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS OVER SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC. 
   MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST.  THIS AREA
   MAY SEE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED
   RISK OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...COOL ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
   CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LIMITING THE
   EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE RISK.
   
   ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
   MO/IL/IN/KY/OH...WHERE POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   AFFECT LATER TODAY.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   MID/LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS LATER TODAY.  AT
   THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT.
   
   ..HART/GARNER.. 04/28/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z