Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 051956
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
   ALBEIT A MARGINAL SCENARIO IN TERMS OF SEVERE MAGNITUDE...SPATIALLY
   EXPANDED THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES TO INCORPORATE
   ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
   TO THE UPPER COLD POOL /AROUND -25C AT 500 MB/. WHILE COPIOUS SMALL
   HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...IT IS BELIEVED THAT MOST
   HAILSTONES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. OTHERWISE...SEE
   PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/05/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011/
   
   NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E THIS
   PERIOD AS MID LEVEL JET MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS KS/NE THIS AM TO MID
   MS VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD AIR ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET WILL LEAD TO
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS MO THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
   FRONT NOW INTO NWRN MO/ERN KS.  NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
   STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CONSIDERABLE SFC
   HEATING...SBCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO CENTRAL AND
   SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD RESPOND TO BOTH THE HEATING AND
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MO AND WITH
   COOLING UPPER TEMPS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   
   WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER SYSTEM AS LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z