May 10, 2011 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 10 00:46:11 UTC 2011
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20110510 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20110510 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20110510 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20110510 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 100042
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2011
   
   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...NW
   NEB...SD AND SRN ND...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN FAR ERN WY
   AND FAR NW NEB LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
   CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
   SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED
   BENEATH THE EXIT REGION A 55 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND THIS FEATURE
   IS PROVIDING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES NEWD ALONG
   A GRADIENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD...A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP AS THE STORMS MOVE
   INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN WCNTRL SD. THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD EXIST IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS
   INTERACT WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL SD. AS THIS
   INTERACTION OCCURS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. IF
   A LINE OF STORMS CAN PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN AN
   ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST AS FAR NORTHEAST
   BISMARK AND ABERDEEN.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
   THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. IF A FEW CELLS CAN INITIATE...THEN A
   MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DUE TO THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY.
   
   ...WCNTRL TX...
   AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WCNTRL TX
   WHERE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING JUST TO THE EAST OF A
   DRYLINE. SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE
   LOWER 60S F AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
   LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH 35 TO 40 KT EVIDENT ON REGIONAL
   WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   PERSISTING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2011
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z