May 17, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |
Updated: Tue May 17 19:51:07 UTC 2011 | |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic |
---|
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 171947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE VA AREA... ...MID ATLANTIC... AT MID AFTERNOON...STRONG VORTICITY MAX HAD SHIFTED NWWD INTO SRN VA TO NEAR LYH...WITH STRONGER FORCING LOCATED IN WRN/NRN VA. AS VORT MAX TURNS MORE WWD TOWARD WV...STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO VA...THOUGH DENSER CLOUDS AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT WWD EXTENT OF SEVERE STORMS. WHILE STORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUB SEVERE...WITH A FEW DEGREES HEATING...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN AND WRN VA. THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT. SINCE STRONGER FORCING HAS MOVED NWWD OUT OF NC AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN NRN NC. ALSO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE LOWERED IN PA AS THE MAIN FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF STATE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD FROM SWRN CO/NERN NM...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS AREA IS STABLE...SO ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STAY SEVERE VERY LONG. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAPHICAL LINES. ..IMY.. 05/17/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011/ ...MID ATLANTIC... STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL/ERN NC AS OF LATE MORNING WILL PIVOT NWWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NC WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NWWD INTO WRN VA BY TONIGHT. DCVA IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE PRESENCE OF 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST DIABATIC WARMING OCCURS. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND RESULTANT 35-40 KT OF DEEP SELY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR. FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 796. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT 50-55 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER WRN CO INTO NWRN NM AS OF MID MORNING WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TODAY...WITH HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESSIVELY OVERSPREADING LEE CYCLONE AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLY TIMED ARRIVAL OF THIS IMPULSE...THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE LEE MOUNTAIN CIRRUS /AND ITS POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACT ON DAYTIME HEATING/ COMBINED WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT MLCAPE TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON E OF DRYLINE. THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BUT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z