Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 062010
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
   
   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE
   NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SERN
   TX TO NRN FL...
   
   CORRECTED WIND PROBABILITY LINE
   
   ADDED PARTS OF ID TO SLGT RISK FOR INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
   OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH.
   
   INCREASED HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF COAST
   REGION FOR ONGOING PULSE STORMS IN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   
   REST OF THE OUTLOOK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN AREA AND
   FORECAST REASONING FROM PRIOR ISSUANCE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/06/2011
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2011/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING ACROSS
   CENTRAL CA AND WILL ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
   AFTERNOON TO WY/SRN MT BY 12Z TUE.
   
   N/S COLD FRONT THRU NV WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SERN ID/UT THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY WITH THE SUPPORT OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH. 
   PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS LEE OF WY MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   DEEPENS NNEWD INTO SERN MT TONIGHT.  THIS WILL TRANSPORT AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   ERN/CNTRL MT.
   
   LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS EXPANDS EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES
   WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT ACROSS THE TOP OF
   THE RIDGE.
   
   ..MT/DAKOTAS INTO NRN RCKYS/NRN GRT BASIN TODAY/TNGT...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING WWD THRU THE DAY E OF THE
   DIVIDE IN MT HOWEVER CAP WILL DELAY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
   UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN.  VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG
   WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BEGINNING BY
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN/SCENTRAL MT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   INITIAL THREAT...HOWEVER AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS NWD FROM WY AND
   STRONG ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH UPPER TROUGH...AN UPSWING
   IN INTENSITY AND NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER
   DARK AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF MT POSSIBLY INTO WRN ND/NWRN
   SD. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THRU AT LEAST
   THE EVENING...AND AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE
   MCS...WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN ALONG WITH THE LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   W OF THE DIVIDE IN WY AND SWRN MT...A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
   LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY AS THE
   INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.  WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   INVERTED V SOUNDINGS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING FRONT
   FROM THE NRN WASATCH FRONT/SERN ID BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEWD
   ACROSS WRN WY THIS EVENING.
   
   FURTHER E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   STORMS WOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHERE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE.
   MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM
   ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
   JET AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE W.  HAIL POSSIBLY VERY LARGE WOULD
   BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY BE ELEVATED WITHIN A
   MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   
   ...UPR GRT LKS......
   ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER ERN WI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   GENERALLY EWD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY.  SOME
   UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING INFLUENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY ON THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPR GRT LKS REGION
   LATER TODAY.  THE WI STORM CLUSTER ALSO ESSENTIALLY MARKS THE
   LEADING EDGE OF EML CAP SPREADING ENEWD WITH EXPANDING UPR RIDGE. 
   THE CAP LIKELY WILL DELAY AND MAY PROHIBIT DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
   IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
   STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR STORMS BOTH ALONG THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE EXISTING CLUSTER...ALONG
   NE-MOVING WARM FRONT...AND ALONG STNRY FRONT IN CENTRAL MN. STEEP
   MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW COULD SUPPORT
   A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS BY EVE...INCLUDING A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
   OTHER LESS SUSTAINED STRUCTURES.
   
   WITH MLCAPE LIKELY AOA 3000 J/KG...THE STORMS WITH ALL FORMS OF SVR
   WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCSS MAY
   EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF WI...AND INTO MI THIS EVE AS
   WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM SRN MN TO LWR MI.
   
   ...SERN STATES/GULF CST THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
   SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...STRONG SFC HEATING OF MOISTURE-RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SCTD WWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG/BRIEFLY SVR PULSE STORMS IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON
   SIDE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z